December 21, 2018

Fortune – Term Sheet Readers Predict a Recession In 2019

By Polina Marinova 

Thank you to everyone who responded to the question: “What’s your top business-related prediction for 2019?” This year’s Crystal Ball was much darker than years past, with many readers predicting that a recession is around the corner.

Below are your predictions:

RECESSION: Term Sheet readers predict an economic downturn in 2019.

“Huge stock market crash, particularly in the U.S. and U.K., will lead to falling house prices and a long recession.” — Gareth Stephens

“The relative youth of the tech sector has been an essential part of its decades-long dominance. But in 2019, it is possible that many burgeoning entrepreneurs, investors, and employees in the tech sector will see for the first time what life is like through a recession. While the fundamental drivers of technology will continue to strongly impact innovation across most sectors, an economic downturn will show us which companies, young or not-so-young, are truly able to withstand the slings and arrows of real-world economic cycles.” —Yann Ranchere, partner at Anthemis

“In 2019, there’s a high probability we’re going to hit a recession and if we do, everyone is going to pull back on spending all at the same time leaving small businesses in a lurch. For small business owners, now is the time to reduce expenses, not the time to expand. As interest rates rise, a recession could arrive fast and it could be quite painful for those small businesses that aren’t prepared.” — Ian Crosby, CEO & founder of Bench

“Economists and analysts agree that a recession and market correction could happen within the next 12 to 18 months. Since a downturn will likely cascade to many compensation-related issues—such as benchmarking, dilution, goal setting, and disclosure, more companies will devise a ‘CEO Pay playbook’ to handle these facets in a potential downturn.” – Robin Ferracone, founder and CEO of Farient Advisors

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